Introduction ................................................... 15
OVERVIEW AND THE ROLE OF GERMANY IN THE VERIFICATION REGIME
1 Verification of the CTBT and its Implementation in Germany .. 21
Christian Bönnemann
1.1 Introduction ........................................... 21
1.2 Verification regime .................................... 24
1.3 Seismological monitoring of nuclear explosions in
Germany (before the CTBT) .............................. 25
1.4 Implementation of the CTBT in Germany .................. 28
1.5 Verification of the CTBT in Germany .................... 29
1.6 Main CTBT actors of the German Federal Government ...... 33
1.7 Other German CTBT actors ............................... 34
2 German Contributions to the International Monitoring
System (IMS) ................................................ 35
Peter J. Gaebler, Christoph Pilger, Lars Ceranna, Gernot
Hartmann, J. Ole Ross, Clemens Schlosser & Andreas
Bollhöfer
2.1 Introduction ........................................... 35
2.2 Station operation and maintenance ...................... 39
2.3 Primary seismic monitoring station PS19 ................ 41
2.4 Auxiliary seismic monitoring station AS035 ............. 46
2.5 Infrasound array IS26 .................................. 48
2.6 Infrasound array IS27 .................................. 53
2.7 Radionuclide monitoring station RN33 ................... 59
VERIFICATION TECHNOLOGIES OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONITORING SYSTEM
3 The Seismic Network of the International Monitoring
System (IMS) ................................................ 69
Peter J. Gaebler & Lars Ceranna
3.1 Introduction ........................................... 69
3.2 IMS seismic network stations ........................... 70
3.3 Global seismicity and nuclear explosion tests .......... 74
3.4 Event discrimination and magnitude-yield
relationships .......................................... 76
3.5 Detection capability of the seismic network-
methodology ............................................ 78
3.6 Detection capability of the seismic network-results .... 81
3.7 Comparison of the detection capability against REB
events ................................................. 89
3.8 Conclusions ............................................ 90
4 The Infrasound Network of the International Monitoring
System (IMS) ................................................ 91
Christoph Pilger, Lars Ceranna & Alexis le Pichon
4.1 Introduction ........................................... 91
4.2 Infrasound - an overview ............................... 91
4.3 Infrasound activity in Central and Northern Europe ..... 93
4.4 Infrasound activity from Mt. Etna volcano .............. 98
4.5 IMS global network performance ........................ 104
4.6 Conclusions ........................................... 108
5 The Hydroacoustic Network of the International Monitoring
System (IMS) ............................................... 111
Christoph Pilger & Lars Ceranna
5.1 Introduction .......................................... 111
5.2 Hydroacoustic stations and technology ................. 111
5.3 Hydroacoustic propagation ............................. 113
5.4 Hydroacoustic monitoring-examples of natural and
anthropogenic signals ................................. 116
5.5 Worldwide location of hydroacoustic events ............ 119
5.6 Conclusions ........................................... 121
6 The IMS Radionuclide Network Supported by Atmospheric
Transport Modelling (ATM) .................................. 123
J. Ole Ross, Andreas Bollhöfer & Clemens Schlosser
6.1 Introduction .......................................... 123
6.2 Anthropogenic fission products in the atmosphere ...... 125
6.3 Atmospheric Transport Modelling ....................... 129
6.4 Conclusions ........................................... 133
VERIFICATION TEST CASES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL MONITORING SYSTEM
7 Verification of the North Korean Nuclear Explosions
2006, 2009, 2013, and 2016 ................................. 137
Gernot Hartmann, Andreas Barth, J. Ole Ross, Ilona
Grünberg & Michaela Frei
7.1 Introduction .......................................... 137
7.2 Seismic event localization ............................ 138
7.3 Source identification ................................. 141
7.4 Yield estimation ...................................... 148
7.5 Moment tensor inversion ............................... 152
7.6 Radionuclide evidence ................................. 156
7.7 New and future system developments for CTBT ........... 162
7.8 Conclusions ........................................... 164
8 National Data Center Preparedness Exercises (NPE) for an
Independent Performance Assessment ......................... 167
J. Ole Ross, Nicolai Gestermann, Thomas Plenefisch,
Gernot Hartmann & Lars Ceranna
8.1 Introduction .......................................... 167
8.2 First ideas realized in NPE2007 and NPE2008 ........... 168
8.3 NPE2009-introducing "data fusion" ..................... 169
8.4 Complex multi-technology scenario for NPE2010 ......... 171
8.5 Straight non-compliance in NPE2012 .................... 179
8.6 NPE2013 ............................................... 181
8.7 NPE2015 ............................................... 185
8.8 Conclusions ........................................... 185
9 The Tohoku Earthquake with Tsunami and the Fukushima
Releases as Performance Test for the International
Monitoring System (IMS) .................................... 187
J. Ole Ross, Thomas Plenefisch, Lars Ceranna, Andreas
Bollhöfer & Clemens Schlosser
9.1 Introduction .......................................... 187
9.2 The Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011 ............... 187
9.3 Atmospheric Transport Modelling simulating the
Fukushima radionuclide plume arrival at IMS stations
across the globe ...................................... 194
9.4 Backward modelling-finding Fukushima .................. 199
9.5 Potential blinding of the IMS ......................... 200
9.6 Conclusions ........................................... 203
10 Chelyabinsk - a Benchmark for Global Infrasound
Detections ................................................. 205
Christoph Pilger, Karl Koch, J. Ole Ross & Lars Ceranna
10.1 Introduction .......................................... 205
10.2 Chelyabinsk - event description and source
characteristics ....................................... 205
10.3 Detections and non-detections by the global IMS
network ............................................... 206
10.4 Infrasound propagation modelling ...................... 211
10.5 Discussion of parameters influencing detection
capability ............................................ 213
10.6 The seismoacoustic fingerprint of the fireball
across Central and Northern Europe .................... 216
10.7 Conclusions ........................................... 222
INTERNATIONAL DATA CENTER, NATIONAL TECHNICAL MEANS AND ON-SITE
INSPECTION
11 Some Considerations on the Quality of International Data
Center (IDC) Standard Waveform Products .................... 227
Karl Koch
11.1 Introduction .......................................... 227
11.2 Quality control work on the IDC Reviewed Event
Bulletin .............................................. 229
11.3 The impact of interactive analysis on bulletin
quality at the International Data Center in 2007 ...... 235
11.4 Conclusions ........................................... 246
12 Remote Sensing Data in Support of CTBT Monitoring: Case
Studies of Underground Nuclear Explosions
Jörg Schlittenhardt, Morton Canty, Xiaoying Cong & Ilona
Grünberg
12.1 Introduction .......................................... 247
12.2 DlnSAR processing of ERS data over NTS ................ 247
12.3 Co-seismic deformation ................................ 250
12.4 Post-seismic deformation .............................. 250
12.5 Wide-area change-detection: A case study of Nevada
Test Site underground nuclear explosions using
conventional multispectral satellite data ............. 254
12.6 Comparison of differential SAR interferometry and
wide-area change-detection results .................... 255
12.7 Case study of the nuclear test in North Korea of
October 9, 2006 ....................................... 255
12.8 Conclusions ........................................... 257
13 The Role of On-Site Inspections (OSI) of the CTBT .......... 259
Nicolai Gestermann, Martin Müller & Franz Groneschild
13.1 Introduction .......................................... 259
13.2 Regulationsand provisions from the Treaty ............. 261
13.3 Decision about the conduct of an OSI .................. 263
13.4 Possible scenarios for an OSI request ................. 264
13.5 The role of NTM in case of an OSI ..................... 264
13.6 OSI technologies ...................................... 266
13.7 OSI search logic and management systems ............... 272
13.8 Results of an OSI ..................................... 273
13.9 Integrated Field Exercises 2008 and 2014 .............. 274
13.10 Training and nomination of inspectors ................ 277
13.11 Conclusions .......................................... 278
14 The Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System (SAMS) for
On-Site Inspections (OSI) of the CTBT ...................... 279
Nicolai Gestermann, Benjamin Sick & Manfred Joswig
14.1 Introduction .......................................... 279
14.2 Physical background ................................... 283
14.3 The role of SAMS in case of an OSI .................... 285
14.4 The method of Nanoseismic Monitoring .................. 286
14.5 SAMS at the IFE14 ..................................... 290
14.6 Detection threshold estimation of SAMS networks ....... 296
14.7 Conclusions ........................................... 299
References .................................................... 303
Acronyms and Abbreviations .................................... 317
About the Authors ............................................. 321
|
