1 Introduction ................................................. 1
1.1 The bioenergy issue ..................................... 1
1.2 Land use modeling in the context of the bioenergy
issue ................................................... 2
1.3 Our aim - system understanding through a stylized
agent-based model ....................................... 3
1.4 Outline of the thesis ................................... 5
I Introducing an agent-based model to analyze land use change
in the context of bioenergy production ....................... 7
2 Modeling framework ........................................... 9
2.1 Introduction ............................................ 9
2.2 Model Description in ODD + D ............................ 9
3 General system behavior ..................................... 27
3.1 Introduction ........................................... 27
3.2 Methods ................................................ 27
3.3 Results ................................................ 30
3.3.1 Temporal dynamics ............................... 30
3.3.2 C-balances ...................................... 32
3.3.3 The market equilibrium .......................... 33
3.3.4 No market equilibrium ........................... 36
3.4 Discussion ............................................. 36
3.4.1 The results in the context of the bioenergy
issue ........................................... 37
3.4.2 Challenges and benefits of using a classical
economic general equilibrium approach as
a theoretical background for an agent-based
model ........................................... 37
3.5 Appendix ............................................... 39
II Using the agent-based model to analyze land use change
in the context of bioenergy production ...................... 41
4 Study I: Understanding the impact of bioenergy in the land
use system .................................................. 43
4.1 Introduction ........................................... 43
4.2 Methods ................................................ 44
4.2.1 Design of the analysis .......................... 44
4.3 Results ................................................ 45
4.3.1 The impacts of an increasing bioenergy demand ... 45
4.3.2 The influence of the economic framework
conditions on the Response Pattern formation .... 47
4.3.3 The influence of the technological conditions
and the time horizon on the Pattern Maps ........ 50
4.3.4 The influence of the ecological conditions on
the Pattern Maps ................................ 51
4.3.5 Untangling the interplay between the economic
framework conditions, the potential of
bioenergy to reduce C-emissions, the time
horizon and the ecological framework
conditions ...................................... 52
4.4 Discussion ............................................. 55
4.4.1 Intended and unintended effects of an
increasing bioenergy demand on the climate ...... 56
4.4.2 What policy options exist when there is a need
for action? ..................................... 57
4.4.3 Some general remarks concerning the
methodology ..................................... 58
4.4.4 Conclusion and next steps ....................... 58
5 Study II: Assessing the potential of policy instruments to
combat unwanted side effects of bioenergy production ........ 59
5.1 Introduction ........................................... 59
5.2 Methods ................................................ 60
5.2.1 Policy instruments used ......................... 60
5.2.2 Assessing the effectiveness of the policy
instruments ..................................... 61
5.3 Results ................................................ 63
5.3.1 Step one: Choosing optimal tax rates ............ 63
5.3.2 Step two: Comparing the performance of the
optimized policy instruments under different
framework conditions ............................ 65
5.3.3 The effect of the maximum tolerated socio-
economic side effect к .......................... 69
5.4 Discussion ............................................. 71
5.4.1 Lessons learned concerning the design and
assessment of policy instruments ................ 71
5.4.2 The results in the context of the current
debate on REDD+ ................................. 71
III Methodological reflection .................................. 75
5.5 Introduction to Part III ............................... 77
6 Describing human decisions in agent-based models - ODD+D,
an extension of the ODD protocol ............................ 79
6.1 Introduction ........................................... 79
6.1.1 Shortcomings of the ODD protocol for
describing human decision making ................ 81
6.1.2 The ODD+D Protocol: Adapting ODD for
describing decisions in ABMs .................... 83
6.2 Sample application of ODD+D ............................ 96
6.3 Discussion ............................................ 101
6.3.1 Expected benefits from ODD+D ................... 101
6.3.2 The added value of the ODD+D protocol
compared to the ODD protocol ................... 102
6.3.3 The effort required to use the ODD+D protocol .. 102
6.3.4 Future work .................................... 103
7 Standardised and transparent model descriptions for
agent-based models current status and ways ahead ........... 105
7.1 Introduction .......................................... 105
7.2 Current state of the art: different types of model
descriptions in use ................................... 106
7.3 Does an ideal standard for describing models exist? ... 109
7.3.1 Different purposes of model descriptions ....... 109
7.3.2 Matching purposes and types .................... 111
7.3.3 One size does not fit all ...................... 114
7.4 Ways ahead ............................................ 115
7.5 Conclusion ............................................ 117
IV Discussion and Synthesis ................................... 119
8 Discussion and Synthesis ................................... 121
8.1 Land use change through an increasing bioenergy
demand ................................................ 121
8.2 Climate impact of the land use change through an
increasing bioenergy demand ........................... 122
8.3 The potential of policy instruments to counteract
unwanted side-effects of the land use change through
an increasing bioenergy demand ........................ 124
8.4 Reflection on our methodological approach ............. 126
8.4.1 Insights that were facilitated by the design
of our modeling framework ...................... 126
8.4.2 Insights that were facilitated by the design
of the analysis ................................ 128
8.4.3 Improving the description of agent-based
models ......................................... 128
8.5 Outlook ............................................... 129
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