 | Meylan P. Predictive hydrology: a frequency analysis approach / P.Meylan, A.-C.Favre, A.Musy. - Boca Raton: CRC/Taylor & Francis; Enfield: Science publ., 2012. - xii, 212 p. - Bibliogr.: p.189-202. - Sub. ind.: p.207-212. - ISBN 978-2-88074-797-8
|
Foreword ..................................................... v-vi
Preface .................................................... vii-ix
1 Introduction ................................................. 1
1.1 Forecasting and Prediction .............................. 1
1.2 Frequency Analysis ...................................... 2
1.3 The Principle of Frequency Analysis ..................... 3
1.4 Outline of this Book ................................... 13
2 Return Period, Probability and Risk ......................... 15
2.1 Return Period .......................................... 15
2.2 The Probability of Events .............................. 19
2.3 Risk ................................................... 21
2.4 Utilization of Standards ............................... 27
3 Selecting and Checking Data Series .......................... 29
3.1 Choices of Events ...................................... 30
3.2 Types of Series ........................................ 38
3.3 Types of Errors ........................................ 43
3.4 Error Identification and Measurement Correction ........ 44
3.5 Introduction to Statistical Tests ...................... 46
3.6 Test of One Parameter, Local Scale ..................... 52
3.7 One Parameter - Regional Scale ......................... 66
4 Selecting a Model ........................................... 71
4.1 The Gamble of Frequency Analysis ....................... 71
4.2 Possible Approaches to Choosing the Type of Model ...... 76
4.3 Conclusions ............................................ 89
5 Estimation of Model Parameters .............................. 91
5.1 The Maximum Likelihood Method .......................... 91
5.2 The Method of Moments .................................. 93
5.3 The Method of Probability Weighted Moments ............. 94
5.4 The Method of L-Moments ................................ 96
5.5 The Graphical Method ................................... 96
5.6 A Comparison of Parameter Estimation Methods .......... 101
6 Validation of the Model .................................... 103
6.1 Visual Examination .................................... 103
6.2 The Chi-Square Test ................................... 103
6.3 The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test ........................... 108
6.4 The Anderson-Darling Test ............................. 111
6.5 Goodness-of-Fit Indices ............................... 115
6.6 Comparison of Models .................................. 116
6.7 Conclusions ........................................... 117
7 Uncertainties Analysis ..................................... 119
7.1 Sources of Uncertainties .............................. 119
7.2 The Confidence Interval ............................... 121
7.3 Confidence Interval and Return Period ................. 126
7.4 Confidence Interval using the Parametric Bootstrap .... 133
7.5 Conclusions ........................................... 133
8 Using the Frequency Model .................................. 135
8.1 The Probability of Hydrological Events ................ 136
8.2 Annualization of Infra-annual Series .................. 137
8.3 The Frequency Use of Nonsystematic Data ............... 144
8.4 Frequency Use of IDF Curves ........................... 145
8.5 Considering Uncertainties in the Case of a Function
with Several Variables ................................ 150
8.6 Frequency Analysis by Counting ........................ 154
9 Perspectives ............................................... 161
9.1 Bayesian Frequency Analysis ........................... 161
9.2 Multivariate Frequency Analysis using Copulas ......... 164
9.3 Frequency Analysis in a Non-stationarity Context ...... 176
9.4 Regional Frequency Analysis ........................... 179
Bibliography .............................................. 189-202
List of Acronyms .......................................... 203-204
Index and List of Proper Names ............................ 205-206
Subject Index ............................................. 207-212
|
|
