Preface ........................................................ ix
Acknowledgements ............................................... xi
List of abbreviations ........................................ xiii
1 Introduction: Why do we Need Ecosystem-Level Models as
Decision-Support Tools in Forestry? .......................... 1
Introduction ................................................. 1
Human population growth: the ultimate environmental threat
to the world s forests ....................................... 2
The failure of science to provide the necessary
analytical and forecasting tools for resource
management: the question of complexity and prediction ..... 5
Complexity and prediction in forestry: levels of biological
organization and integration ................................. 9
The role of process-based, ecosystem-level hybrid
simulation models as a component of the solution to
problems posed by complexity in forestry ................. 11
Take-home message ........................................... 14
Additional material ......................................... 14
Notes ....................................................... 14
2 Ecological and Environmental Concepts that should be
Addressed in Forestry Decision-Support Tools ................ 17
Introduction ................................................ 17
The problem of uncritical use of, or failure to define,
terms commonly used in environmental debates about
forestry: the dangers posed by the anthropomorphizing of
ecosystems .................................................. 18
Ecosystem stability ......................................... 22
Ecosystem resilience ........................................ 33
Ecosystem health ............................................ 35
Forest ecosystem integrity .................................. 37
Are ecosystems complex adaptive systems'? ................... 39
Old growth .................................................. 40
Dangers of the misuse of terminology: feeding
inappropriate belief systems ................................ 42
Take-home message ........................................... 43
Additional material ......................................... 43
3 Hybrid Simulation in the Context of Other Classes of
Forest Models, and the Development of the FORECAST Family
of Hybrid Simulation Models ................................. 45
Introduction ................................................ 45
A three-level classification of models ...................... 45
Brief history of the development of these three categories .. 48
The FORECAST-HORIZON family of hybrid simulation models ..... 52
Major categories of hybrid simulation models we have
developed ................................................... 53
Take-home message ........................................... 57
Additional material ......................................... 57
4 Forestry in Transition: The Need for Individual Tree
Models ...................................................... 59
Introduction ................................................ 59
The ideal individual tree model ............................. 60
Individual tree models as management tools .................. 65
FORCEE: a comprehensive, spatially explicit, individual
tree management and agroforestry model ...................... 69
Take-home message ........................................... 76
Additional material ......................................... 77
5 Stand-Level Hybrid Models as Toob to Support Ecosystem-
Based Management ............................................ 79
Introduction ................................................ 79
Classification of stand-level hybrid models ................. 81
Description of the hybrid modelling approach employed in
FORECAST .................................................... 82
Overview of FORECAST evaluation studies ..................... 88
Applications of FORECAST ................................... 101
Development of FORECAST Climate ............................ 115
Take-home message .......................................... 117
Additional material ........................................ 118
6 Landscape-Level Models in Forest Management ................ 121
Introduction ............................................... 121
Development of landscape-level models for forest
management ................................................. 122
The LLEMS model: a multi-value, local landscape extension
of FORECAST for variable retention harvesting .............. 126
Example application of LLEMS to evaluate dispersed
retention alternatives .................................. 132
Ongoing development ........................................ 134
Take-home message .......................................... 135
Additional material ........................................ 135
7 Educational Models in Forest Management .................... 137
Introduction ............................................... 137
The use of ecological models as educational tools .......... 143
FORTOON: a high-school-level, introductory, multiple-
value forest management game ............................... 147
PFF: Possible Forest Futures ............................... 151
Multiple run manager for FORECAST .......................... 152
Take-home message .......................................... 153
Additional material ........................................ 154
8 How to Develop a Model for Forest Management ............... 155
Introduction ............................................... 155
Basic steps to develop a model of forest management ........ 162
Uncertainty and complexity in model development ............ 183
Take-home message .......................................... 191
Additional material ........................................ 191
Note ....................................................... 191
9 The Role of Ecosystem Management Models in Adaptive
Management, Certification and Land Reclamation ............. 193
Introduction ............................................... 193
The role of forest ecosystem management models in
adaptive management ........................................ 194
The need for credible forecasts of possible forest
futures as an essential component of forest certification .. 200
Ecosystem management models in reclamation planning ........ 207
Take-home message .......................................... 210
Additional material ........................................ 211
Note ....................................................... 211
10 Future Perspectives in Hybrid Modelling .................... 213
Introduction ............................................... 213
Linking forest management models that work at different
scales ..................................................... 214
Using hybrid models and visualizations to communicate
with the general public .................................... 216
Take-home message .......................................... 235
Additional material ........................................ 236
Notes ...................................................... 236
References .................................................... 237
Index ......................................................... 273
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