ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................ xi
Section 1 Introduction
CHAPTER 1 A New Discipline: Climate Change Biology ............. 3
A Greenhouse Planet ............................................. 4
Boundaries of Life .............................................. 7
Shifting Interactions ........................................... 8
Chemistry of Change ............................................. 9
Linkages Back to Climate ........................................ 9
Climate Change Biology ......................................... 10
CHAPTER 2 The Climate System and Climate Change ............... 13
The Climate System ............................................. 13
Evolution of the Earth's Climate ............................... 16
Natural Drivers of Change ...................................... 19
Major Features of Present Climate .............................. 24
Stable States of the System .................................... 28
Human-Driven Change: Rising CO2 ................................ 30
Rapid Climate Change ........................................... 34
Change and the Global Carbon Cycle ............................. 39
Modeling the Climate System .................................... 41
Regional Climate Models ........................................ 45
Commonly Used GCMs ............................................. 48
Emissions Scenarios ............................................ 50
GCM Outputs .................................................... 50
Biological Assessments with Downscaled Data .................... 52
Further Reading ................................................ 52
Section 2 The Impacts of Human Induced Climate Change
CHAPTER 3 Species Range Shifts ................................. 55
First Sign of Change: Coral Bleaching .......................... 56
Acidification—The CO2 Double Whammy ............................ 59
First Changes on Land .......................................... 60
Mounting Evidence of Range Shifts .............................. 62
Patterns within the Patterns ................................... 71
Extinctions .................................................... 72
Freshwater Changes ............................................. 75
Pests and Pathogens ............................................ 76
Further Reading ................................................ 79
CHAPTER 4 Phenology: Changes in Timing of Biological Events
Due to Climate Change ............................... 81
Arrival of Spring .............................................. 83
Freshwater Systems ............................................. 87
Spring Ahead, Fall Behind ...................................... 89
Tropical Forest Phenology ...................................... 89
Marine Systems ................................................. 91
Mechanisms: Temperature and Photoperiod ........................ 93
Life Cycles of Insect Herbivores ............................... 94
Timing Mismatches Between Species .............................. 97
Further Reading ............................................... 100
CHAPTER 5 Ecosystem Change ................................... 101
Tropical Ecosystem Changes .................................... 101
Cloud Forests ................................................. 103
Temperate Ecosystem Change .................................... 107
High Mountain Ecosystems ...................................... 111
Glacier and Snowpack-Dependent Ecosystems ..................... 113
Polar and Marine Systems ...................................... 116
Polar Food Webs: Changes in the Southern Ocean ................ 120
Tropical Marine Systems ....................................... 120
Pelagic Marine Systems ........................................ 123
Changes in Ocean Chemistry .................................... 125
Ecosystem Feedbacks to Climate System ......................... 126
Further Reading ............................................... 130
Section 3 Lessons from the Past
CHAPTER 6 Past Terrestrial Response .......................... 133
Scope of Change ............................................... 133
The Earth Moves ............................................... 134
Climate Runs Through It ....................................... 136
Fast and Far: The Record of the Ice Ages ...................... 140
Ice Racing in North America and Europe ........................ 141
Out of Land: The Southern Temperate Response .................. 144
North Meets South ............................................. 145
Rapid Change: The Younger Dryas ............................... 148
Tropical Responses ............................................ 150
Milankovitch Forcing in the Biological Record ................. 154
Lessons of Past Change ........................................ 155
Further Reading ............................................... 155
CHAPTER 7 Past Marine Ecosystem Changes ...................... 157
Effects of Temperature Change ................................. 157
Effects of Sea Level Change ................................... 161
Changes in Ocean Circulation .................................. 162
Changes in Ocean Chemistry .................................... 166
Further Reading ............................................... 171
CHAPTER 8 Past Freshwater Changes ............................ 173
Lakes as Windows to Past Climate .............................. 174
Types of Freshwater Alteration with Climate ................... 179
Freshwater Biotas, Habitats, and Food Chains .................. 183
Deep Time: Pace of Evolution and Species Accumulation ......... 184
Recent-Time (Tertiary and Pleistocene) Records of Change ...... 186
Fast Forward .................................................. 188
Further Reading ............................................... 188
CHAPTER 9 Extinctions ........................................ 189
The Five Major Mass Extinctions ............................... 189
Causes of Extinction Events ................................... 193
Climate as the Common Factor in Major Extinctions ............. 194
Impacts and Climate ........................................... 195
Does Climate Change Always Cause Extinction? .................. 196
Climate and Extinctions in Deep Time .......................... 196
The Past 100 Million Years .................................... 198
The Past 2 Million Years: Extinction at the Dawn of the
Ice Ages and the Pleistocene Extinctions ...................... 201
The Missing Ice Age Extinctions ............................... 204
Patterns in the Losses ........................................ 204
Further Reading ............................................... 205
Section 4 Looking to the Future
CHAPTER 10 Insights from Experimentation ...................... 209
Theory ........................................................ 209
Laboratory and Greenhouse Experiments ......................... 214
Field Experiments ............................................. 220
Results of Whole-Vegetation Experiments ....................... 224
Results of Field CO2 Experiments .............................. 226
Arctic Experiments ............................................ 229
Further Reading ............................................... 231
CHAPTER 11 Modeling Species and Ecosystem Response ............ 233
Types of Models ............................................... 235
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models .............................. 239
Species Distribution Models ................................... 243
Gap Models .................................................... 252
Modeling Aquatic Systems ...................................... 253
Earth System Models ........................................... 258
Further Reading ............................................... 259
CHAPTER 12 Estimating Extinction Risk from Climate Change ..... 261
Evidence from the Past ........................................ 263
Estimates from Species Distribution Modeling .................. 265
Species-Area Relationship ..................................... 267
A Question of Dispersal ....................................... 268
The Problem with Endemics ..................................... 269
Checking the Estimates ........................................ 269
Not Just About Polar Bears Anymore ............................ 270
Are a Million Species at Risk? ................................ 272
Why the Future may not be Like the Past ....................... 274
Further Reading ............................................... 275
Section 5 Implications for Conservation
CHAPTER 13 Adaptation of Conservation Strategies .............. 279
Early Concepts of Protected Areas and Climate Change .......... 280
Protected Area Planning ....................................... 284
Planning for Persistence ...................................... 286
Resistance Resilience ......................................... 289
Protected Area Management ..................................... 291
Marine Protected Areas ........................................ 294
Protected Areas for Climate Change ............................ 300
Further Reading ............................................... 301
CHAPTER 14 Connectivity and Landscape Management .............. 303
Area-Demanding Species ........................................ 304
Migratory Species ............................................. 308
Species Range Shifts .......................................... 310
Planning for Connectivity ..................................... 311
Managing Connectivity in Human-Dominated Landscapes ........... 314
Regional Coordination ......................................... 315
Monitoring .................................................... 316
Further Reading ............................................... 317
CHAPTER 15 Species Management ................................. 319
Threatened Species ............................................ 319
Climate Change Impacts on Threatened Species .................. 322
Species Threatened by Climate Change .......................... 322
Assessing Species Threatened by Climate Change ................ 324
An Iconic Example ............................................. 326
Managing Species Threatened by Climate Change ................. 328
Resources for the Job ......................................... 335
Further Reading ............................................... 336
Section 6 Finding Solutions: International Policy and
Action
CHAPTER 16 Mitigation: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
Sinks, and Solutions ............................... 339
Climate Policy ................................................ 339
Stabilizing Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations ......... 341
Practical Steps for the Next 50 Years ......................... 342
Energy Efficiency ............................................. 344
Renewable Energy Sources ...................................... 344
Nuclear Power ................................................. 348
The End of Oil ................................................ 350
Putting the Pieces Together ................................... 355
Further Reading ............................................... 356
CHAPTER 17 Extinction Risk from Climate Change Solutions ...... 357
Wedges Beyond 50 Years ........................................ 357
Past Experience ............................................... 358
Land use Requirements of Alternate Energy ..................... 359
Solar ......................................................... 360
Wind .......................................................... 361
Biofuels ...................................................... 363
Hydropower, Tidal Power, and Geothermal Power ................. 365
Nuclear Power ................................................. 366
Carbon Sequestration .......................................... 366
Land use Requirements of Free Air Sequestration Technologies
Systems ....................................................... 368
Geoengineering ................................................ 368
Estimating Extinction Risk .................................... 369
Short-Term Wedges and Long-Term Pathways ...................... 371
Further Reading ............................................... 371
CHAPTER 18 Assessing Risks, Designing Solutions ............... 373
Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation ................................ 373
The Assessment Process ........................................ 373
Domain and Grain .............................................. 374
Biological Assessment ......................................... 375
Stand-Alone Biological Assessment ............................. 377
Design of Adaptation Solutions ................................ 378
Two Examples .................................................. 379
And Do It Again ............................................... 381
REFERENCES .................................................... 383
INDEX ......................................................... 393
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