1. Introduction ................................................. 9
2. Literature review ........................................... 13
2.1. Outbreak foci of foliophages ........................... 13
2.2. Prediction of nun moth outbreaks on the basis of
meteorological data .................................... 13
2.3. Quantitative and qualitative estimation of the nun
moth populations ....................................... 15
2.4. Mating disruption technique ............................ 18
3. Goal and scope of the study ................................. 20
4. Area of the study ........................................... 21
5. Methods ..................................................... 22
5.1. Development of a method for identifying permanent
outbreak epicentres .................................... 22
5.1.1. Database ........................................ 22
5.1.2. Analysis of spatial data ........................ 23
5.2. Development of models describing the dependence
between the nun moth outbreak onset in the Notec'
Forest Complex and meteorological factors .............. 24
5.2.1. Meteorological data ............................. 24
5.2.2. Development of logit models ..................... 28
5.2.3. Development of discriminant models .............. 29
5.2.4. Verification of models .......................... 30
5.3. Determining the relationship between the nun moth
abundance in a tree crown and frass drop ............... 31
5.4. Determining the dependence of fecundity on certain
characteristics of pupae and moths ..................... 36
5.5. Development of criteria for determining outbreak
phases ................................................. 37
5.6. Development of the nun moth mating disruption
technique .............................................. 37
5.6.1. Sex pheromone ................................... 37
5.6.2. Formulations of the pheromone preparation ....... 38
5.6.3. Pheromone doses and methods of application ...... 40
5.6.3.1. Determination of the optimal
pheromone dose ......................... 41
5.6.3.2. Optimization of the method of
the pheromone preparation
application ............................ 45
5.6.4. Assessement of the pheromone biological
activity depending on the formulation, dose
and form of application ......................... 47
5.6.5. Evaluation of the economic efficiency of
the pheromone application in controlling the
nun moth populations ............................ 55
6. Results ..................................................... 61
6.1. Method for identifying permanent nun moth outbreak
epicentres ............................................. 61
6.2. Dependence of the nun moth outbreak onset on
meteorological factors ................................. 64
6.2.1. Logit models .................................... 64
6.2.2. Discriminant models ............................. 68
6.3. Estimation of the number of nun moth larvae on the
basis of frass drop .................................... 72
6.3.1. Estimation of frass drop ........................ 72
6.3.2. Estimation of the number of larvae in crowns
of trees cut ontocotton sheets .................. 77
6.3.3. Relationship between the number of nun moth
individuals in a tree and frass drop ............ 78
6.4. Fecundity of nun moth females .......................... 81
6.4.1. Fecundity and weight, width and length of
female pupae .................................... 81
6.4.2. Fecundity and length of female moth forewing .... 84
6.5. Criteria for determining outbreak phases ............... 85
6.6. Method of forest ecosystem protection against the nun
moth based one the use of sex pheromone ................ 86
6.6.1. Sex pheromone ................................... 86
6.6.2. Formulation ..................................... 87
6.6.2.1. Effectiveness of the formulation
tested in 2003 ......................... 87
6.6.2.2. Effectiveness of the formulations
tested in 2004 ......................... 88
6.6.3. Pheromone dose and concentration ................ 92
6.6.4. Method of pheromone preparation application ..... 95
6.6.5. Economic efficiency of the pheromone
application in controlling the nun moth
populations ..................................... 99
6.7. System of prediction and control of the nun moth ...... 102
7. Discussion ................................................. 108
8. Summary and conclusions .................................... 117
Prediction and control of the nun moth Lymantria monacha
L. (Lepidoptera, Lymantriidae). Summary (in English) .......... 119
Literature .................................................... 124
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